Independent football analysis · English edition
The whistle ends it.
The explanation starts.
ReviewedUEFA EURO 2024 · Final
The historical record favoured England. The final did not. Personnel changes, width and the timing of each substitution explain how Spain turned a tight game into a deserved late win.
Read the analysis →Full timeOlympiastadion Berlin · 14.07.2024 The numbers
H2H · PRE-MATCH27meetings before the match
37.0%Spain · historical win rate
48.1%England · historical win rate
86′minute of the winner
Our analytical frame
01History is not a forecast
Meetings and win rates create context; they do not replace a view of the current team.
02Change needs a mechanism
Coaches, line-ups, absences and substitutions explain why the balance may move.
03The result returns to evidence
Key events explain the score, with facts and interpretation kept visibly separate.